On Friday,
India’s government, after years of deliberation and in an attempt to arrest
slowing growth decided to open up India’s retail market to foreign investors. International
retail giants like Walmart have been salivating at the prospect for a while and
look poised to cash in.
Many people
around the world and in this country think of India as a very poor country and
to an extent they are correct. About 800 million people in India are indeed poor.
According to a 2007 report by McKinsey, in 2005 India’s middle class accounted
for only 5% of its population. But this figure is slated to grow to 20% in 2015
and to 40% by 2025. Now consider this: India has a population of a little more
than 1 billion! 20% of 1 billion is 200 million; that is the size of roughly
three-quarters of the United States, about eight Australias and fifty New
Zealands!
So are
there any opportunities here for Kiwi businesses? Clearly it is difficult to go
head-to-head against the international giants like Walmart or Carrefour. So
what New Zealand businesses need to think about are more niche markets, where
entry may be easier. One such area is the production of milk and milk products
which might be a viable opportunity for a company like Fonterra.
According
to recent reports last year the price of milk and milk products in India rose
by 15.3% - driven in large part by increased demand even in the face of steady
supply. In order to keep up with demand, milk production in India will need to
increase by over 4% in the near future, up from the 3.5% where it is today.
But the big
challenge is to reach out beyond the urban elite, concentrated in the cities,
numerous as they may be. The point to bear in mind is that by 2025 the middle class
in India will double in size, which means that about 200 million more people
will be joining in. One option might be to target that segment of Indian
society.
I profess
no particular knowledge or expertise regarding expanding into a new country but
here the story of Grameen-Danone may be instructive. In 2005 the CEO of Groupe
Danone in France (Dannon in the USA) met with Muhammad Yunus the founder of
Grameen Bank, the well-known microfinance organization. This eventually led to
the establishment of Grameen Danone, a “social (non-profit) business” consisting
of a small plant located in Bogra, that produces Shakti Doi (or “Strong
Yoghurt”), an yoghurt fortified with micronutrients for sale in rural areas of
Bangladesh, an area that suffers from malnutrition and calcium deficiency along
with large parts of the sub-continent. Among other things there are “yoghurt
ladies” who cycle from village to village with small quantities of yoghurt at
one time (the lack of refrigeration facilities is an active constraint) and
sell it at a low price. All profit is ploughed back into the operations of the
enterprise.
While
selling yoghurt to the poor at no profit may not seem like a winning strategy
it appears that Danone has learned some valuable lessons from this undertaking
in terms of product development, factory design and how to make inroads into
new markets.
According
to a recent report in Time, Danone has figured out how “to put enough vitamin
A, iron, zinc and iodine into a 60 g or 80 g cup of yogurt to meet 30% of a
child's daily needs…. Part of the answer lay in a new, less reactive iron that
Danone had learned about from an NGO — not the sort of partner a global
corporation tends to come across in its normal line of business. Now Danone is
using that iron in products for the developed world, where the company sells
fortified yogurt targeting things like bone strength in older women.”
Another
important lesson that Danone picked up in Bangladesh is how to keep milk fresh
for a longer time by using enzymes since refrigeration is often not an option.
But equally
importantly this attempt has provided a template for how the company may push
deeper into the developing world primarily Asia for now but, in the not too
distant future, Africa.
While
Danone may not make money out of its social business, the value of its name
recognition is immense and most likely surpasses what could have been
accomplished via large amounts of advertising.
Danone
already has a presence in India through its Yakult brand of probiotic milk
drink. This is a joint venture with Yakult Honsha, Japan. But given the size of
the market it is likely that there is scope for other players. It is also
probably not out of bounds to simultaneously enter into profitable joint
ventures in the urban areas while setting up social non-profit undertaking in
rural areas in order to get market penetration.
Danone
hired Zinedine Zidane, the French soccer star to launch Grameen Danone in
Bangladesh. Here we have an edge. Everyone in India knows who John Wright is!
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